The 2022 Puget Sound Salmon Forecasts have been released! Here’s my coverage of what was shared via Zoom by WDFW.
I was able to listen in on the all-important public Zoom meeting hosted by WDFW unveiling the Puget Sound salmon forecasts for 2022 and updating us on a number of key environment and conservation issues.
WDFW also shared forecasts on the Washington coastal and Columbia River fisheries, which I will blog about separately.
My page covering all topics related to the 2022 Puget Sound salmon seasons can be found here.
My comprehensive guide to Puget Sound salmon fishing can be found here.
The call started with a rundown of the environmental conditions in the PNW.
Environment in the PNW impacting Salmon Forecasts
We must start our focus on the environment in the prediction of a continued La Nina condition in the PNW. La Nina means wetter and colder temps and is considered good for PNW Salmon
While everyone likes to enjoy warm and dry days outside, we need the wetter and colder conditions to be prevalent for Salmon to thrive, which we are expected to get in the next 3 months.
If you’ve been following the blob (blog?), you know this has been a source of very challenging ocean conditions that threaten salmon and steelhead survival and vitality. We’ve had several of the largest warm blobs of warm ocean water throughout the North Pacific since 2014 and this has led to crash after crash of salmon and steelhead stocks throughout the PNW.
It looks like these effects are winding down, let’s hope it stays that way.
Before we get too excited about dissipating warm ocean blobs though, we have to remain aware of just how much of a warming trend continues throughout the planet.
Greater warmth may mean some forms of life will thrive, but it’s a general negative for salmon and is a major factor in the challenging fisheries we’ve all experienced in the last 5-6 years.
Now the good (great?) news is that even with the generally warmer temps, 2021 salmon indicators are the 2nd best in the past 24 years of keeping track. While I was mildly excited about this graph on the call, Ron Garner chimed in and explicitly tied it to historically great fishing in each year that looked like 2021 (no reds).
In fact, if you want your heart to skip a beat here…he mentioned that the last time it was this good there was a high abundance of 20-30 lb chinook in the ocean and even some 40s and 50s caught. He mentioned a single day in August in Westport where twenty 40 lb chinook hit the dock. Wow!
If our odds are higher to hook into a 30-50 lb chinook this summer, sign me up!
And with that, let’s get right to the Puget Sound Chinook Forecast for 2022.
Puget Sound Chinook Forecast 2022
2022 Represents a modest increase from 2021 and a definite improvement over the low of 2020. And if these fish are bigger and healthier due to great ocean and Puget Sound feeding conditions…That’s exciting!
Let’s take a look at 2021 and where the returns outperformed or underperformed.
It’s notable that the mid/south Puget Sound systems of the Green and Puyallup shined in 2021 as chinook bound for these rivers will be fishable in Marine Areas 5, 6, 9, 10, and 11 providing significant angling opportunities.
Deep South Sound underperformed in terms of the Nisqually River specifically (which was forecasted in 2021), and the North Sound rivers held serv which is important.
What we see in the forecast for 2022 is mostly positive outside of one river….
Sadly, that one river is the Stillaguamish. If you know anything about Puget Sound Salmon Seasons right now, you know the Stilly is the single most constraining factor in setting any season throughout Puget Sound.
I like seeing the Green and Puyallup systems predicted to be good again though as this gives us increased opportunity throughout the Puget Sound.
More on the Stilly later…
Brightest spot for the Chinook forecast in 2022
I’m going to say that Marine Area 10 is the place to fish for chinook in 2022. Both the South and Central Sound kings will be caught here and some of these kings will get quite large if the seasons make it deeper into August given the good ocean feeding conditions.
Darkest spot for the Chinook forecast in 2022
Marine Area 7 / San Juan’s. You just hate to see it, but the poor opportunity is likely to continue. In 2021 they only got 1 week to chase Chinook in Marine Area 7 and I expect 2022 to repeat if not be worse due to the Stillaguamish Chinook stock being so depleted.
Puget Sound Coho Forecast 2022
Let’s start by looking at the returns in 2021 throughout Puget Sound. This shouldn’t be a surprise to many, but 2021 was quite good…unless you were fishing the Puyallup River above the confluence of the white river (yours truly is guilty here). The Marine Area 10 and 9 fishery were simply incredible and I got to enjoy that quite a bit.
The forecast for 2022 calls for a modest increase as compared to 2021 and a continued show of strength since the Coho crash of 2015. I’m hopeful that with the good ocean conditions, we continue to get quality fish as well.
If we take a look at the Coho Forecast map, the north sound is largely expected to outperform the most. The South Sound on the other hand looks concerning. Additionally, the wild coho on the Puyallup seems to be significantly depressed (from a different graph presented by WDFW). Central Sound Coho are holding steady.
The Skagit is responsible for an outsized number of the Coho return to Puget Sound, so the Skagit being historically good has probably contributed to and made up for the poor expected returns in the South Sound.
Brightest spot for the Coho forecast in 2022
I would say Marine Area 7 due to the north sound positive returns expected in 2022, but it’s quite possible the Stilly Chinook situation will cost us time on the water to chase MA7 coho as well…
Marine Area 9 / 10 is probably going to continue to be the best bet in terms of season opportunity combined with an abundance…Those wanting to fish Jeff Head and Shilshole may want to concentrate around the oil docks though if most fish are going to head north from there.
Darkest spot for the Coho forecast in 2022
Marine Area 11 Coho may be a complete crap shoot. It wasn’t great in 2021, but it may be downright garbage in 2022.
Puget Sound Chum Forecasts 2022
Chum returns in Puget Sound were not good, but the South Sound ended up being not as bad as feared. The North Sound and Hood Canal however were continued problems for rebounding chum populations.
Unfortunately, the magnificent Hood Canal chum continues to be forecasted low, and the south sound again appears as a concern. The north sound does appear to be a bright spot save for the Nooksack system.
Overall, 2022 is a continued attempt to rebound off of the low in 2019, but a far cry from earlier healthy numbers of chum. Chum stocks tend to really struggle to rebound over a 5-10-year period due to how little time they spend in freshwater. Chum experience heavy predation in estuaries and in the saltwater from predators like cutthroat trout.
Puget Sound Sockeye Forecasts 2022
Of all the species of Pacific salmon, Sockeye in the Puget Sound seem to be taking the greatest beating. The depleted stock concerns center around Lake WA which hasn’t had a fishery in decades. Baker Lake on the Skagit system is providing the only real opportunity in the area.
There are occurrences of encountering sockeye in the Puget Sound in areas like MA5 and 6. As well as MA7 intercepting Fraser River bound Sockeye.
Baker Lake should provide another opportunity in 2022 similar to 2021, but as always we will watch and wait.
Final Comments and Observations
While the picture is largely positive for fisheries in 2022 targeting Chinook and Coho (the dominant recreational focus when no Pinks are around), the seasons are always set with conversation in mind for the most threatened stock.
It cannot be emphasized enough for everyone to realize that Puget Sound Chinook are ESA-listed federally. That means the ability to fish at all is heavily dependent on having a plan and monitoring to ensure limited impacts to these natural spawning / wild strains.
Additionally, the ESA listing treats each river system’s stock of salmon as an important subspecies to manage. So, one river, just one river, having significant challenges impacts every Marine Area within the Puget Sound that these salmon swim through and feed in.
If you scroll up to the chinook section, you know we are talking about the Stillaguamish Chinook.
There are other stocks of concern as well, but the Stilly chinook will be responsible for a shortened Marine Area 7 summer fishery as well as limits on the Marine Area 9 and 10 seasons.
If I was in the North Sound, I would consider a few trips over to Canadian waters. In the South Sound, unfriendly seasons might lead one to Westport and the Columbia.
I do expect seasons to accommodate fishing similar to last year, but as always we will need to hold our breath, this is just the beginning of the process and much can change.
WDFW talked a bit about the 10-year management plan with the co-managers replacing the section 7 permit / year-to-year management that seemed to give tribes more leverage in the process. I have no idea right now what that means for season setting and quotas, but as I find out I will be sharing them on the blog, so stay tuned.