Puget Sound Salmon Forecasts 2021

The 2021 Puget Sound Salmon Forecasts have been released! Here’s my coverage of what was shared via Zoom by WDFW.

There was a lot of good information shared regarding expected weather and climate via the public WDFW Zoom call to unveil the 2021 salmon forecasts for the Puget Sound and Washington Coast. You can check out our entire coverage of the 2021 Puget Sound Salmon Seasons here. You should also check out our comprehensive guide to Puget Sound salmon fishing here.

Here are a few of the highlights of those observations before we dig right into the salmon forecasts themselves.

First, it’s important to note that the Blob of 2014-2016 was the largest event on record since 1982. That we had decreased abundance during that period and are now emerging with more hope and promise of better fisheries, even while some conditions remain challenging, is itself a positive thing.

While the blob is reducing in size, our oceans are still quite warm relative to recent “known history”.

One of the reasons this is important is that WDFW is integrating more of the climate conditions into the forecast models, which means some of these conditions will likely impact the ways fisheries are set as forecasts are improved or decreased in response.

So while we are coming out of the worst of the conditions the past few years, we are still sitting in a place of “climate challenge” amongst many other issues (commercial over-harvest, predation, habitat loss, etc) in these fisheries.

Puget Sound Chinook Forecast 2021

Context is always important, so let’s start with that with these puget sound salmon forecasts. One of the main takeaways from the above is that we are having a continuing negative trend in wild chinook stocks around Puget Sound.

While hatchery returns have fluctuated quite a bit, 2017 represented one of the best years in recent history.

Fishing seasons for king salmon are set in many ways based on allowable impacts to ESA-listed Puget Sound Chinook. Regardless of hatchery abundance, if our wild stocks don’t rebound, we will continue have to restricted fisheries.

While we are down slightly on the 10-year average, and Year-over-Year, this is still predicted to be a historically decent return of hatchery fish. Many of the challenging wild stocks are in the north sound, so I would expect central and south sound seasons to be generally better.

Year to year we are holding fairly steady in terms of wild fall chinook returns, even if the longer trend is mostly negative.

Table of 2020-2021 Chinook returns and Forecast for Puget Sound

Region	2021 Forecast	2020 Forecast	Difference
All Puget Sound	216481	242827	-26346
All Mid-South Sound	89740	110523	-20783
All North Sound	51824	53186	-1362
All Strait + Hood Canal	74917	79118	-4201

Brightest spot for the Chinook Forecast 2021

The Puyallup River is expected to see an increase in ~4700 hatchery fish for a total of almost 18000 salmon compared to last year’s forecast of ~13000.

Darkest spot for the Chinook Forecast 2021

The Deep South Sound runs of Deschutes, Nisqually, and McAlister Creek are down a combined almost 17000 returning kings for a total of around 20000 salmon from a forecasted 2020 run of ~37500.

Puget Sound Coho Forecast 2021

The above graph should provide context on the historical picture of coho runs in both hatchery and wild. You can clearly see the impact of the blob / warm water in the Pacific, as well as the strong years just prior.

While, 2021 is not projected to be as strong as 2012 and 2013, if the run comes in as forecast, we should have even more opportunity than last year.

There’s also a lot of speculation about the Puget Sound forecast not being as extreme to the positive side as the Columbia River / Oregon Coast which is predicting a historically high return of coho due to favorable ocean conditions.

Good Coho returns make up the bulk of opportunity for fishing for Salmon in the Puget Sound, so this year-to-year forecast increase (which may even be too conservative), will hopefully translate to a really solid fishing season.

Just like with Chinook, one weak wild stock can impact the fishing season for all the other good runs taking the same migratory route, so let’s take a peak at what that looks like.

While the above picture is not exactly positive, there’s not a super weak run of wild coho that would make the season setting really challenging the way there is for Stilliguamish Chinook for example.

The Snohomish system has been challenging in the last few years, but they are expected to see a really nice bounce back in 2021 of wild coho.

The Nisqually run of coho for example, has been bad in years past, and it has prevented a fishery from opening on that river, but hasn’t impacted fishing seasons being set in Puget Sound.

Table of 2020-2021 Coho returns and Forecast for Puget Sound

Region	2021 Forecast	2020 Forecast	Difference
All Puget Sound	614948	504604	+110344
All Mid-South Sound	220164	174902	+45262
All North Sound	291092	194389	+96703
All Strait + Hood Canal	103691	135313	-31622

The above numbers paint a mostly positive picture of coho seasons in the interior of Puget Sound.

There’s a really nice rebound of runs in the North Sound and strengthening in the South Sound that will hopefully provide significant opportunity and success for coho anglers in the Salt and on the rivers this summer and fall.

Brightest spot for the Coho Forecast 2021

The Puyallup River is again expected to see a nice increase of coho as is the Snohomish. If you are a mid-south sound fisherman, the forecasted chinook increase combined with the coho may mean it’s time to “do the Puyallup”!

Darkest spot for the Coho Forecast 2021

While there’s no significantly weak stock of Coho predicted in 2021, the drop-off in Hood Canal and the Skokomish river are probably the darkest spot relative to previous years.

Puget Sound Pink Forecast 2021

As you can see the Pink Salmon returns have taken the Puget Sound area by storm in the past two decades. The 2017 return was by far the weakest in recent memory and the 2015 return was heavily impacted by the warm ocean conditions.

2019 was a major bounce-back year that WDFW got wrong by a multiple of 3-4x, but yours truly predicted to be a major upside surprise.

While I’m not putting something out there for 2021, I won’t be surprised at all if the Pinks exceed our expectations again this year.

The reason for that optimism is that the Pinks have shown the ability for their population to absolutely explode when ocean conditions are right and all evidence points to these conditions being positive for the 2021 return.

2021 may represent a decrease from the recent 10-year average, but it’s still a historically strong return. WDFW needs to get the bonus pink salmon limit right this time.

As you can see, 2019 wasn’t a total rebound for many areas outside of the Puyallup River.

A total return to the Puget Sound of 2.9+ million is super exciting! The North Sound should have abundant opportunity and see a nice rebound.

I’m not sure I believe the lower prediction for the South Sound. Either way, Pinks should provide plenty of reasons to be on the water after chinook season closes and while we wait for ocean Coho to return.

Puget Sound Chum Forecast 2021

While chum runs have historically been on a positive trend, the longer-term trend line has turned negative in the past decade. And recently returns have really struggled.

One of the challenges with Chum Salmon is that they spend the least time in the river and head straight to estuaries where Chum fry experience significant predation. This results in real challenges with the ability to rebound quickly sometimes.

2021 looks to be even worse than 2020, which is a major disappointment, and not at all unexpected. We will need to lay off these runs to let them rebound for future abundance.

These numbers are not good for most of the systems I tend to fish. Hood Canal and Central / S.Sound are all predicted to be bad. I hope this year they keep the commercials off the Hood Canal run at least.

Puget Sound Sockeye Forecast 2021

Unfortunately, there’s literally no good news when it comes to Sockeye in Puget Sound. We’ve been on quite the decline trajectory. And while we’ve had a few positive return years in the Skagit River recently, the long-term downtrend has continued unabated.

Not much to see here, just another low return year.

Again not great news on this front

Summary of the 2021 Puget Sound Salmon Forecast

Remember, these are just the forecasts, these are the raw material from which salmon seasons are constructed, but still paint a picture that helps us shape our expectations for our puget sound salmon seasons.

With that in mind, I think we can expect a similar Chinook season compared to 2020 in terms of fishing regulations with a potential for a downside surprise in the regulations, but greater angler success as compared to 2020.

I think we can expect to see some pretty awesome fishing for pinks and coho. These two alone should provide a reason to be on the water from June to September.

And I’m also expecting that Chum and Sockeye seasons will largely be non-existent in Puget Sound and for good reasons.