The Washington Coast Salmon Forecast for 2022 has been released and we have some idea what to expect in terms of the season-setting process.
I was able to listen in on the all-important public Zoom meeting hosted by WDFW unveiling the Washington Coast salmon forecasts for 2022 and updating us on a number of key environment and conservation issues.
WDFW also shared forecasts on the Puget Sound salmon runs, which I have linked to here.
The call started with a rundown of the environmental conditions in the PNW.
Environment in the PNW impacting Salmon Forecasts on the WA Coast
La Nina conditions are expected to continue for the next 3 months at least. La Nina means wetter and colder temps and good news for salmonoids.
While colder and wetter benefits salmon in the PNW, further south and east there are serious drought conditions.
If you’ve been following the blob status, you know this has been a source of very challenging ocean conditions that threaten salmonoid survival and vitality. We’ve had several of the largest warm blobs of warm ocean water throughout the North Pacific since 2014 and this has led to crash after crash of salmon and steelhead stocks throughout the PNW.
Hopefully we get a legitimate break from these conditions.
While temps have come down and warm blobs have dissipated, I don’t like seeing this up and to the right warming trend.
2021 Salmon indicators are the 2nd best in the past 24 years of keeping track. This is great news for the health and size of returning salmon.
On the call, Ron Garner mentioned that the last time it was this good there was a high abundance of 20-30 lb chinook in the ocean and even some 40s and 50s caught. He mentioned a single day in August in Westport where twenty 40 lb chinook hit the dock. Wow!
If our odds are higher to hook into 30-50 lb chinook this summer, sign me up!
And with that, let’s get right to the Washington Coast Chinook Forecast for 2022.
Washington Coast Chinook Forecast 2022
The ocean season is driven by the Columbia river returns predominantly. However, an unhealthy run of chinook on the Washington Coast can dramatically effect the season setting process.
Chinook stocks remain stable on the coast and slightly above the 10 year average.
The far right column shows expected returns in thousands for each river system on the Washington coast.
As you can see Columbia River contribution is significantly higher and a major driver of the 2022 salmon seasons on the Washington Coast.
While 2022 is slightly lower on the Columbia River, it’s still above and well off of historical lows.
Overall, it’s a good setup to fish MA1, MA2, MA3, and MA4 with an expectation of potentially very large chinook if the season goes into August.
As you know a major factor determining how late the season goes is related to quotas on coho and any major conservation issues there. In the past, there were some Washington coastal rivers with significantly challenging coho forecast that would limit overall time on the water.
Let’s take a look at Coho now.
Washington Coast Coho Forecast 2022
Coastal Coho represents quite a nice rebound from the 2015 lows and a sizable year-over-year increase from 2021.
But are there any rivers on the coast with major forecast concerns?
As you can see it’s all neutral to good for the Washington Coastal rivers.
The Queets in particular is expected to have a really nice rebound off of its lows. If you remember, past years had limited seasons due to concerns about Queets coho stock. Look at how many coho are expected back in Grays Harbor!
MA2 could be a very attractive place to fish this summer.
Coho in the Columbia River continue to rebound off of recent lows, and the 2022 Oregon Production Index (OPI) is still expected to exceed 1 million coho.
Final Comments and Observations
I’m not seeing anything in this ocean forecast that would limit seasons to their full potential given the health of the various stocks of chinook and coho…that combined with the fantastic conditions could be a setup for one of the best ocean fishing seasons in recent memory!
Can’t wait!