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Puget Sound Salmon Forecasts 2022
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Feb 5, 2025
Interested in learning more about North of Falcon and the forecasts that drive the salmon seasons in the Puget Sound and around the state of Washington? This video has a detailed rundown of the environment conditions, chinook / king salmon forecasts, coho, chum and sockeye forecasts based on the data and graphs shared by WDFW at the public meeting on March 4th. We also review salmon returns from 2021 and how each river system around puget sound fared. We will discuss darkest and brightest spot for each Marine Area and each species of salmon. We also got an update on the marine blob, snowpack levels, and some really exciting news about ocean conditions / salmon indicators that could foretell better fishing in years to come as well as increased size in the fish returning throughout 2022.
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welcome everybody to another edition of
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pnw best life today we're going to be
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talking about the north of falcon
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process and the just unveiled salmon
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forecast for you the year 2022
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specifically in the puget sound hit the
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subscribe button turn notifications on
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all right let's get into it so we
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started with a review
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of the environment conditions which is
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very important for the survival of
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salmon and the vitality of salmon with
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numbers the size and really it's about
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the conditions in the north pacific and
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in the fresh water and all these things
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so wwfw walk through
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first of all the environment
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one of the things they shared was
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there's a
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really good chance that for the next
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three months we're going to continue to
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be in l
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or in la nina conditions now la nina is
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better for salmon although it is colder
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and wetter
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it creates better environment conditions
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for
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for salmon to thrive and survive
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we do have drought conditions
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outside of the pacific northwest soon as
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you go south and east
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you get into some major major drought
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conditions but up in the pacific
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northwest we benefit tremendously from
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la nina our snowpack is
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90 to 100 percent where it needs to be
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very positive
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situation there
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if you've been following what's going on
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with our marine
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conditions
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one of the things you're concerned about
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is the blob
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right the warm water uh mass that's been
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collecting in the north pacific that's
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been thrown off the ecosystem and making
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it uh more challenging for salmon
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steelhead
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to feed and survive and grow big so if
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you take a look at uh this graphic the
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blob has been uh shrinking and has not
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lasted as long most recently
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although the one that persisted until
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april 2021 was still second largest on
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record
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a lot of this activity got started in
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2014 and we've seen stock after stock of
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salmon steelhead crash and we're still
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recovering from that blob effect while
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the conditions are definitely getting
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better and we'll talk about how good how
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much better
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in a minute here uh it's important to
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remember that we're still dealing with
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incredibly warm
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uh or warmer ocean and land conditions
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uh even this january was the sixth
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warmest in 143 years so we're still on a
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warming trend
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that is a net negative for salmon
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and steelhead
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so good news is that the salmon
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indicators which is a combination of
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these physical biological indicators you
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can pause and zoom in and take a look at
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what those are um but those are in the
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best shape they've been in in 24 years
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is the second best uh 2021 was the
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second best on record in 24 years and uh
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it was you know i as i saw this in the
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presentation i was like oh that's cool
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you know hopefully that means good
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things for all the out migrating fish
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ron garner
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uh he he jumped in he's like hey guys um
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last time was this good we had 20 40
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pound chinook hit the dock in westport
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on the same day he's like look when when
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the conditions are getting this good the
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returning fish are gonna be bigger
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they're gonna be healthier you're gonna
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have more 20s 30s
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40s yes and 50 pound king salmon this
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summer and i think my heart skipped the
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beat a little bit i got my palm started
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to sweat i got a little i got a little
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excited and i'm still i'm still excited
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thinking about uh that opportunity what
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that means for us in puget sound right
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if you're not getting out to the ocean
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that's okay in the puget town you get
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that marine area 10 maybe 11 13 season
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going into august um you're you're gonna
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be you're gonna be catching some big
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some big big chinook uh headed up head
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up the rivers in the central and south
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sound uh if those seasons hold up which
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we'll talk about here in a minute here
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so
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so that's good news
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uh let's go right to the the chinook
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forecast for 2022 right so um
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puget sound struck numbers they kind of
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bottomed out in 2020 and uh the
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rebounding 2021 was better 2022 uh is
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forecasted to be slightly better than
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that
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now
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this is against the backdrop of the
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natural spawners the wild fish
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are esa listed and they're still not
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doing uh very well in terms of
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historical numbers there and that will
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create challenges right as the most
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constrained
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uh river with wild uh wild fish it's
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gonna put limitations on our challenge
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our chance to to really fish for
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hatchery fish and uh we're going to talk
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about that in a minute here the still
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aguamish but
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it's important to realize that
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these are federally
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esa listed
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salmon that um
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we only get to fish on with proper
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regulations and controls in place and
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even wdfw's hands are tied in and tribal
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hands are tied in this case based on
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these federal federal mandates so
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let's take a close let's take a look at
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the the map here of chinook returns in
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2021 so as you can see
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um
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you know some rivers really outperform
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you look at the green you look at the
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pewallop and then other rivers were uh
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were not as good you know this squally
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disappointed last year i fished a little
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bit on the squad last year and it was it
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was okay uh it wasn't great but the
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still gwamish um was was was poor
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again which is which is the struggling
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run uh in the north sound that's
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constraining a lot of our season so
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that's not that's not good
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in 2022 look at the fall chinook
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forecast and unfortunately while the
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picture is mostly positive
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still guamish is again
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not
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expected to have
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good returns
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even though in the south sound we are we
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do have some some good news there with
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the green again and the puyallup again
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those systems what that means for puget
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sound fishermen is is
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uh you know the the
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marine area 11 and 10 which will have
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less regulatory impact from
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the um sogwa mistake although it will
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still have some as these fish stray and
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they move around the puget sound they
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don't just make a beeline for their
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natal rivers right
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there could be a great opportunity there
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in august to catch some really big fish
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and good numbers of fish depending on
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the feeding situation
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as these as these fish come come into
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the uh deeper parts of of the sand so
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what i mean by that is uh if if the fish
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come in really hungry and they're still
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actively feeding fishermen are gonna
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catch a lot of fish if they eat a lot
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out in the ocean and the straight and
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they come in uh basically full and and
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metabolically closer to spawning as we
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saw in 2020 not as even with fish there
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they won't be very snappy they'll be
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harder to catch
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in 2020 if you remember like our season
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went all the way through because we
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didn't get the quote of that so
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we'll see how that goes but it's the
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setup right now for 10 and 11 uh for
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chinook looks looks pretty good and of
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course 13 as well uh would be would be
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part of that so
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um
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all right
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now uh the probably the worst place to
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fish in 2022 in the puget sound for
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chinook it's going to be marine 87 the
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san juans and again this is because
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the
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a lot of still go amish fish they out
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migrate they spend time in there that's
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why we lost the winter black mouth
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season
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um
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in marina seven and uh additionally
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uh you know it as these fish return
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uh
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there's gonna be a really limited season
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on
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on chinook in marinara 7. let's talk
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about coho so coho looking at the 2021
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returns first of all
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uh it it was it was it was positive
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throughout throughout the sound uh other
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than except for really the south sound
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struggled a bit more uh mostly due to a
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disappointing run on the pew all up uh
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having fished uh the
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upper part of that above the white river
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confluence there was definitely fewer
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fish i could tell there was definitely
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fewer fish
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smaller fish
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not as healthy of a run and in the south
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southern parts of 10
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it was it wasn't as good
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around the oil docks and up in nine it
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was much better as a lot of these coho
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were bound for these north south rivers
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um
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and that made for better fishing
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uh around the edmonds area around
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possession
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et cetera so we that's that's basically
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what we saw in 2021 if you look at the
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forecast overall
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we're still coming up from the uh the
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coho crash in 2015 and depletion a
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little bit depleted in 2019 and we
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continue to improve
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uh although
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this is gonna this this is still even
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though it's a net improvement it's gonna
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hide a little bit of weakness that's
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going on continue weakness in the south
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sound once you look at the coho forecast
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map you see a lot of red in the south
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sound the squally puyallup white river
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all expected to be down for them and
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it's a net positive though because a lot
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of these a lot of coho returned to the
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skagit river and that is supposed to be
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better than the 10-year average
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significantly and so the run overall is
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upgraded now what that means is if
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you're a coho fisherman
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you might want to think again about the
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edmonds area and and possession in north
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area northern areas in the northern
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parts of 10 versus trying to intercept
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them in 11 or or the southern parts of
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of tan so best part of the coho forecast
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i would i would want to say marine area
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seven um but we i don't know if we're
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going to get impacted seasons there
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because of the chinook steely chinook
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situation but that would be a great
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place to fish with all those skagit fish
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coming back and then marine area 910
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though as i talked about on the northern
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ends of 10 throughout nine it's probably
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gonna be the best place um
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and again that nine will probably be
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mark selective again which um which will
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will impact um you know the uh
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how many fish you can actually retain
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versus catch probably darkest spot in
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the forecast marinara 11. i don't know
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if i would even worry about fishing
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marinara 11 for coho um it it's not
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expected to be very good so
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all right so let's look at the the chum
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return so 2021 was um
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it was not a great year for chum but it
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was better in the south sound than what
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uh initially forecasts thought it would
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be it was not good in hood canal it was
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not good in the north sound
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and so when you go over to the
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forecaster 2022 you see
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more expected weakness in hood canal
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more expected weakness in the south
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sound but some turn around in the north
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end which is important those north sound
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stocks
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are a really big deal to to rebound
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chum take the longest of the
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five pacific salmon species to rebound
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they spend the least amount of time in
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fresh water experience heavy predation
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down in the estuaries you know sea run
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cuts and things chomping on them
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on the chum fry when that come out in
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the springtime and so uh it just takes
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them a longer time to rebound five to
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ten years and that's kind of the cycle
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we're in if you look at the chum
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forecast we had a low in 2019 and we're
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just kind of steadily working our way
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back
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um hopefully 2023 24 continues that
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trend and we kind of get back to those
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great chum fisheries
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we've experienced in the last decade so
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last we'll hit sockeye
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no big surprises here lake washington
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run is still trash
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sockeye in general not good although
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baker lake
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is expected to have a fishable number of
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returning
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salmon here that should should hopefully
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allow fisheries similar to last year not
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gangbusters by any means but enough fish
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hopefully to open a season there
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just uh final comments observations you
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know if you're in the north sound
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and you don't get the season you want on
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area seven you might might consider
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popping over to canadian waters you
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might consider uh going down south to
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hit a nine or if eight two opens up for
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coho um
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you know some other options there in the
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south sound uh you may wanna go north a
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little bit hit that central sound area
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for chinook and coho as the um as the
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year progresses along especially
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avoiding the south sound for coho um and
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you also might also want to if you've
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got the right boat uh heading out to
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westport or the columbia which are the
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ocean season this year is expected to be
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much stronger um and so you look at kind
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of this overall graphic you can see
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we've got yellows and reds and the sound
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there's going to be bright spots for
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sure but they're going to be also
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weighed down by some some negatives
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but the straight
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western straight especially and the
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ocean
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might be better places to spend your
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time
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assuming you can afford the gas to get
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out there and get some uh some fishing
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done
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um hope you'll uh join me uh hopefully
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in about a week for some cq uh fun i'll
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be able to post and uh taking advantage
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of the black mouth fishery that opened
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out there and the ocean bottom fish
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opener stay safe out there
13:05
please like this video if this was
13:07
helpful informative to you and subscribe
13:09
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13:11
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13:12
hope to see you out there
13:13
take care stay safe tight lines