Up next in 10
What's expected in 2025 for Puget Sound Salmon? I break down the forecasts and explain the issues
2K views
Mar 9, 2025
Link to premium content: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCc2lsUTFTPx-vU35CIpBmpA/join Members-only videos https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=UUMOc2lsUTFTPx-vU35CIpBmpA We start with Coho forecasts, and right away we run into issues with the natural origin Hood Canal stocks expected to struggle in 2025. This has the potential for a serious impact on Coho fisheries in several Marine Areas around Puget Sound. After that is some good news on Pink runs with an expectation for 8 million pink and huge increases in several Marine Areas and rivers that are going to be incredible to participate in. Finally, we get to chinook forecasts, which are a bit mixed, but mostly positive... I talk extensively about the tradeoffs and factors that are impacting our Marine Area 7 and S-River constrained stocks. Take a look at the accompanying blog posts on these topics here: https://pnwbestlife.com/2025-coho-salmon-forecast-for-puget-sound/ https://pnwbestlife.com/2025-puget-sound-pink-forecast/ https://pnwbestlife.com/2025-chinook-salmon-forecast-for-puget-sound/
View Video Transcript
0:03
what's up everybody I'm here to bring
0:06
you the north of Falcon salmon forecast
0:09
for pet Town hot off the press well last
0:13
week was hot off the press but I'm
0:14
getting to it now and I'm going to break
0:16
down our forecast by shinook by Coho by
0:20
pink salmon for the entire pet town and
0:23
break it out down by sub areas as well
0:26
for for many of you you know right the
0:29
the way our Fisheries get constructed is
0:30
not necessarily totally based on the
0:33
abundance of fish it's the natural
0:35
origin fish that we have to worry about
0:38
when it comes to planting Fisheries
0:40
right but the overall abundance of fish
0:42
tells us how good the fishing will be
0:45
during the season that's open assuming
0:47
the forecasts are accurate which that's
0:49
all we've got to work with right now so
0:50
we're just going to go with it we're
0:51
going to start with coo because the COO
0:55
forecast probably has the biggest sort
0:58
of downside surprise and so we're going
1:00
to jump on that and try to get that out
1:02
of the way a little bit because it it it
1:04
frankly it's probably going to impact
1:06
our coo Fisheries in 2025 that's kind of
1:10
a bummer because overall the COO
1:13
abundance is quite good in petown 2025
1:17
expect similar numbers to 2024 and 2023
1:20
we're definitely benefiting from good
1:22
ocean conditions and good returns of coo
1:26
all right so where is the area of
1:27
greatest concern for coo Sam and
1:30
returning to peit down in 2025 and it's
1:34
ultimately comes down to Hood Canal
1:36
there's some wild stocks the kidsat
1:38
peninsula side of Hood Canal touya River
1:40
big beef Creek a few other rivers where
1:44
the numbers of the natural origin fish
1:46
have just kind of have kind of crashed
1:48
between 2024 and
1:50
2025 and unfortunately there's a bunch
1:53
of Fisheries around pug town that
1:55
contribute to the adult mortalities of
1:58
these fish
2:00
you might think oh it this is only going
2:02
to impact Hood Canal or this only going
2:03
to impact Hood Canal in The Straits
2:05
right or maybe the ocean but
2:07
unfortunately these fish when they're
2:09
coming through you know they're coming
2:11
through admal the inlet they don't
2:13
always know to turn right head down to
2:15
uh head down to Hood Canal so a lot of
2:17
times they're going through 10 they're
2:18
going through nine and in fact the
2:20
single greatest sport fishery impact
2:24
outside a Hood Canal on these on these
2:27
uh natural origin Hood Canal coost
2:29
stocks is Marine area 10 and it's also
2:32
doubly unfortunate that the the greatest
2:34
month of impact is September so we're
2:37
talking potential impacts to the adult
2:40
co-o season in Marine Marine area 10 in
2:43
September Marine area 9 certainly Marine
2:46
area 12 marine area 6 and five maybe
2:50
even uh potentially impacting what kind
2:52
of ocean quotas are out there for uh for
2:55
coo in Marine areas Marine areas like
2:58
four we'll see that that's it the
3:00
further out you go the harder it is to
3:02
predict but this is a significant
3:04
challenge to our Fisheries this year
3:06
we're still early in the process we have
3:09
the N Run for Co which is new abundance
3:12
last year's Fisheries it was presented
3:13
last week at the north of Falcon
3:15
forecast
3:16
kickoff and that tells us that we've got
3:19
a long way to go we're
3:21
49% is basically the exploitation rate
3:25
that's predicted on these wild stocks
3:27
and because of their low numbers the
3:29
maximum exploitation rate they can have
3:31
is 20% there's a huge gap between 50 and
3:34
20% that we've got to overcome and in
3:38
most cases the only way you overcome
3:40
that is by cutting back on our Fisheries
3:43
look these numbers aren't final it's
3:46
preliminary the models are still being
3:48
refined no one needs to freak out about
3:52
what I'm talking about here however we
3:54
do need to be thinking about thinking
3:56
ahead of what our priorities are what
3:59
trade-offs we'd be willing to make and
4:02
be aware things aren't going to be
4:04
smooth sailing between now and opening
4:06
day but there are some bright spots for
4:09
coo as well first of all both the North
4:12
Sound and the South Puget Town don't
4:15
have much contributing impact to these
4:17
wild stocks and their numbers are going
4:20
up year-over-year the Northtown has a
4:23
better run because of places like the
4:25
scagg which keep getting better and just
4:28
doing the line share of work there but
4:30
even in the South Sound places like the
4:32
nisal river and the squawks and net pens
4:35
are both responsible for increases in
4:39
the COO forecast before we talk pink
4:41
forecast I want to take a minute just to
4:43
plug my premium content section of my
4:45
channel I'm going to be making at least
4:47
a video a month maybe two on here that
4:51
is only going to be accessible by those
4:54
who are in the members only section I'm
4:56
going to be able to cover a lot more
4:58
in-depth how-tos a a lot more in-depth
5:01
stuff sharing the knowledge I've gained
5:02
over the years doing all these different
5:04
fisheries and all these different types
5:06
of methods if you're looking to rapidly
5:08
learn some some of how to do some of
5:11
these fisheries and you're behind on the
5:12
learning curve definitely encourage you
5:14
to sign up and I'll be able to help you
5:16
out and you'll have more access to me
5:18
and I'll I'll take your feedback as well
5:20
as to what kind of content to produce
5:22
what kind of how-to to produce and
5:24
there'll be a dialogue there so please
5:26
please take a look at that if that's
5:28
going to help you out all right let's
5:30
talk about pinks this looks to be an
5:32
absolutely stupid run of pink salmon and
5:35
particularly in a few areas it it's just
5:39
it looks like it's going to be off the
5:40
charts we're talking the third best run
5:43
in like the last last 15 years maybe
5:46
right I mean this is this is significant
5:48
and in some areas it's going to be just
5:51
absolutely choked with pink salmon and
5:53
maybe you're one of those people who
5:54
thinks pinks are a nuisance maybe to you
5:57
that's when you go salmon fishing you
5:58
fish every other year and the pinks are
6:00
everything or maybe you're somewhere in
6:01
between I'm probably somewhere in
6:03
between I love audur though especially
6:07
the freshwater options where you get to
6:09
just hammer on so many abundant pink
6:12
salmon is an absolute blast and can get
6:15
old in the salt water at some point when
6:17
you're like you're trying to hook a
6:18
different species you're like oh my
6:19
goodness another pink are you serious
6:21
right and we're going to have some of
6:23
those moments but it's worth it guys
6:25
this this is going to be a lot of fun
6:28
all right so where where are these pinks
6:30
coming uh to where where are they headed
6:32
to what parts of the sound are going to
6:34
get more what parts of the sound are
6:35
going to get less we got to start with
6:37
the northst down because it's one of the
6:40
places that's actually going to see a
6:42
smaller pink return between 2023 and
6:45
20125 and largely even though the Nook
6:48
sack is going to get more pinks the
6:50
gadget drops about 990,000 fish the
6:54
homish system is going to drop about by
6:56
about half so the north down is not
6:58
going to get quite
7:00
the Run of Pinks that uh some of the
7:03
other some of the other areas are I mean
7:04
for it for it to go from basically
7:08
double what it was two years ago even
7:11
with the north down going down by a good
7:14
good amount the rest of the the rest of
7:16
the Puget town as you can imagine we're
7:18
going to walk through in a minute is
7:19
going to be stupid all right we got to
7:21
start by talking about mid mid Puget
7:23
town right working our way
7:25
South oh my goodness the Green River two
7:28
years ago was plugged with pink salmon
7:32
but on top of that number coming back in
7:35
2025 they're going to get an additional
7:37
million pink salmon are you kidding me
7:40
the Green River is going to be
7:43
absolutely stuffed with pink salmon
7:46
you're going to be able to walk across
7:48
on pink salmon it's going to be
7:49
ridiculous Additionally the pup is going
7:52
to get about twice what it got in 2023
7:55
as well which the P had plenty two years
7:58
ago so to get twice that amount 2025
8:01
that is something you look forward to
8:03
yes I will go down and do the peup at
8:05
least one time during Pig season and you
8:09
know it's it's a it's an experience it's
8:11
something it's fun right but the real
8:14
story the real story of increases in
8:17
pink Sam is in the South Sound this is
8:20
going to be the biggest South Sound pink
8:22
run we've ever experienced the naly
8:25
river which had a lot of pigs two years
8:27
ago is going to get another million this
8:30
is like Oprah like you get a million and
8:32
you get a million there's going to be
8:36
1.4 plus million pinks headed to the
8:40
Nali River that's amazing that's
8:43
absolutely amazing and the Nali is a
8:45
really good place if you want to fish
8:47
for them in fresh water there's good
8:49
water tempts because of the the the dam
8:51
the all like Dam the water that's coming
8:53
in there is pretty cold and so those the
8:56
wat tends to be clearer and when those
8:58
fish come in they are SN nappy this is
9:00
the perfect time to learn if you've
9:02
never twitched jigs for pinks we've
9:04
never had a great salmon freshwater uh
9:08
fishing experience this is the time to
9:10
learn get those those wickeds right put
9:13
oh my goodness this is this is just so
9:15
much fun there's if you haven't
9:17
experienced a salmon biting spinner that
9:21
you have direct contact with that you're
9:23
you're fluttering through a drift and
9:25
then Wham it hits it just pure
9:28
electricity and pink salmon are awesome
9:31
to experience in the river like that but
9:33
imagine how many are going to be pouring
9:35
through the Narrows right thinking about
9:38
places like uh you know the Gig Harbor
9:42
Shoreline or uh you know the Dalal
9:45
passage or even just areas around Point
9:47
Defiance or or further south into into
9:51
into 13 like there's going to be some
9:53
places to intercept these pink salmon
9:55
and the salt water in the South Sound
9:57
and experience fishing like weave never
10:00
experienced before it's going to be
10:02
absolutely ridiculous and then I'd be
10:04
remiss if I didn't also get excited
10:06
about Hood Canal these Hood Canal folks
10:08
they're taking a beating with coo they
10:10
got to make it up somewhere and 2023
10:13
they got about 500,000 pinks back 2025
10:17
they're supposed to get almost 2.5
10:19
million
10:20
pinks oh my goodness this is going to be
10:24
ridiculous you're going to want to get
10:26
out I don't know what kind of co-
10:27
Seasons you're going to get you're going
10:29
to want take advantage of the pinks when
10:31
they're in and they come in a little
10:32
earlier right cuz they they come around
10:34
the corner and and it tends to be more
10:36
July uh getting getting going then a lot
10:39
of times the other areas of Puget town
10:41
are more August so definitely take
10:43
advantage of that if you're in Hood
10:44
Canal now of course everyone wants to
10:46
know what we're expecting for shinook
10:48
and I didn't save it for last because
10:51
I'm some kind of big teas although I am
10:54
I saved it for last because it's kind of
10:55
eh it's it's it's not as exciting uh
10:58
this year as as it has been in previous
11:00
years and and that might be my that
11:04
might be naive of me but it also might
11:06
be a good thing because last year was
11:08
was pretty good this year it's supposed
11:10
to be even better in fact in the last
11:12
nine years this is supposed to be the
11:14
second biggest return of Puget Sound
11:16
schnook after 2017 2017 was a ridiculous
11:21
year this is this is number two it's not
11:24
it's not really close to 2017 but it's
11:27
it's still expected to be very good I
11:29
fortunately though underneath the hood
11:31
it's not as good as those numbers were
11:34
reveal I'll explain that in a minute
11:36
starting with just the Straits and Hood
11:38
Canal forecast you know again uh not a
11:41
huge deal here down slightly from
11:45
2024 but again this isn't significant
11:48
contributions to the interior of Puget
11:50
town this is going to be encountered in
11:52
Hood Canal and the Straits and those
11:55
kind of Fisheries which is not nothing
11:57
but this is kind of year-over-year
11:59
s expect similar kinds of numbers now
12:02
weal we talked about the north pet town
12:04
now we're talking about the reason for
12:06
the increase year-over-year in the Run
12:08
size and that's unfortunately the bad
12:10
news most of these fish are headed for
12:13
the samish river and unfortunately with
12:16
the seasons we've had in Marine area 7
12:18
we just haven't been able to get these
12:20
fish as effectively or efficiently as as
12:24
we would like right the Bellingham Bay
12:26
fishery is kind of the primary
12:28
opportunity north of Falcon forecast
12:30
meeting there was some some desire
12:32
expressed from the public can we
12:34
increase the boundaries of the
12:35
Bellingham Bay fish can we do something
12:37
to get these fish CU there's a lot of
12:40
fish headed to the sandwich River how
12:41
can we get these Hatchery Surplus fish
12:44
and provide really good fishing in the
12:46
process that's a question that hopefully
12:49
the advisers hopefully wfw can figure
12:51
out some answers to although I'm not
12:53
very optimistic about that because again
12:55
we've tried every year for the last
12:57
several years since Mariner 7 has had
12:58
some major cuts to it salmon season and
13:01
we've not been successful so there is
13:03
some more work to be done in these
13:06
Marine area 7 Seasons the opportunity
13:10
the quotas but also in the freshwater
13:13
opportunities in places like the skyish
13:15
summer shanuk run I'm going to talk
13:18
about it near the end of the video but
13:20
there's some things we can do there's
13:21
some there's some awareness we can raise
13:24
about the tradeoffs that are being made
13:27
in our salmon fishing Seasons that we we
13:29
have some voice in we have some opinion
13:31
on and some input in that's not getting
13:35
enough attention and I'm going to
13:36
explain that in a few minutes but first
13:38
let's talk about the mid sound the mid
13:40
sound is also slightly higher but
13:43
basically flat mostly because like
13:45
Washington's got a few more thousand
13:47
fish Green's pretty flat pelop has a
13:50
little bit more fish but this is kind of
13:52
expect 2024 abundances you know in 2025
13:56
not a huge difference between the two in
13:58
the South buet down there's actually
14:01
again a slight increase kind of flat
14:03
year-over-year not a big deal the Nal
14:06
sees a little bit of a reduction in
14:09
numbers Mentor Chambers and the dut see
14:13
a little bit more fish but largely this
14:15
is a flat year-over-year forecast for
14:17
the South Sound expect it to be good
14:19
like it was last year expect decent
14:22
Seasons more than likely because there's
14:24
not a lot of impact on sensitive stocks
14:27
from these Fisheries so not a lot to see
14:30
here this is not a very exciting
14:31
forecast from the standpoint of like ooh
14:33
drama it is exciting from the standpoint
14:36
of we probably are going to have seasons
14:38
similar to last year and that means a
14:40
lot of shnook are going to hit the deck
14:42
and a lot of shnook are coming over the
14:44
rail into our boat all right so I want
14:46
to talk about this this uh Marine area 7
14:49
San Juan Islands skyish Summers schnook
14:52
run still aamish the S Rivers the gadget
14:55
summer Falls all this stuff right there
14:57
are things to know about where the
15:00
impacts are going on these natural
15:02
origin stocks that are I'm not seeing
15:04
surface in public discussions public
15:08
discourse discourse with the department
15:11
and and and we need to change that we
15:13
need to get the data out there we need
15:15
to make people aware of what's what's
15:17
going on did you know did you know that
15:21
49% of the exploitation rate on skyish
15:24
Summers schnook came from nonselective
15:27
Fisheries think about that non-selective
15:29
Fisheries right so uh we've got Esa
15:33
listed shinook Puget town and we fish
15:37
selectively on them so that we can
15:38
Target the Hatchery fish it has some
15:40
impact on the natural F natural origin
15:42
fish but it's greatly reduced well why
15:45
then why are half of our impacts going
15:48
to nonselective Fisheries you might
15:50
wonder well what are these non-selective
15:52
Fisheries what are we talking about okay
15:54
let's get into that about 30% of the
15:57
non-selective Fisheries remember 49%
15:59
total but of 30% of the of the impacts
16:01
come from non-selective Fisheries that
16:04
are part of the ocean season setting
16:07
process right so if you're new to this
16:09
you see north of Falcon you see the
16:11
department engaging with the public well
16:13
north of Falcon is wfw process of
16:16
working with the co-managers that fits
16:19
into a larger process of working with
16:22
What's called the Pacific fisheries
16:24
management Council pfmc and they're
16:27
meeting right now and into next week to
16:29
figure out the ocean options this
16:31
includes representatives from California
16:34
Oregon and Washington as well as the
16:36
co-managers trying to figure out what
16:38
are the ocean seasons and quotas going
16:42
to be for both recreational and
16:44
Commercial all right I've never attended
16:47
a pfmc meeting uh some some folks have
16:50
some folks are more involved but they
16:54
fish non- selectively in Marine areas
16:56
three and four on the recreational side
17:00
and the commercial side and there is
17:02
some recreational side that that neab
17:04
troll that's like my favorite troll
17:07
neaba mushroom Rock right we we're
17:09
allowed to take fish that have an extra
17:12
adapost fin we fish non- selectively
17:14
there and many of those fish are from
17:16
the Columbia River right they're working
17:18
their way South they dip in there and
17:20
there's a lot of Columbia River fish and
17:22
that's why those that's why those
17:23
Fisheries are are
17:24
non-selective but at some point like
17:28
like just just for perspective just just
17:30
for the numbers and perspective uh what
17:33
I have in the 2024 Fram spreadsheet is
17:37
about 4% exploitation rate coming from n
17:40
from recreational non-selective fishing
17:43
in Marine Area 3 and four and probably
17:45
most of that is in four okay 0
17:47
4% that's also the same number for the
17:50
entire Marine area 7 salmon season okay
17:53
keep that in mind also in Marine area 4
17:57
there is a non treaty commercial troll
18:01
that accounts for
18:03
0.45% of the exploitation rate the
18:06
remember the the max exploitation rate
18:08
is 8% on the sish the summer shinook
18:10
right now okay so keep that in
18:12
perspective add the two together and
18:15
you're at 10% of what all the allowable
18:18
impacts the the 04 plus the0
18:21
45 again we haven't even be able to fish
18:24
the
18:25
freshwater uh sumers shinook with where
18:27
all these Hatchery fish end up as
18:29
Surplus hatchery in the skyish river but
18:32
at some point why aren't we why aren't
18:34
we even talking about these numbers
18:36
right that that the these numbers are
18:39
equivalent to the entire summer salmon
18:41
season Marine area 7 which has been
18:42
completely reduced I don't know quite
18:45
what's going on here all I know is what
18:46
the numbers are telling me uh you can
18:49
make up your own mind these are just
18:50
what the numbers are the numbers are
18:52
what they are so hope you enjoyed this
18:56
video like And subscribe you'll get more
18:58
content from me as we're going through
19:00
North the Falcon season as we as we're
19:02
talking actual Fisheries proposals I'll
19:04
make another video maybe even get a live
19:06
stream so you guys can jump in live and
19:08
comment discuss but this discussion is
19:11
not going anywhere 2025 is going to be
19:14
incredible season in the Marine areas
19:16
and the fresh water but we've got some
19:19
trade-offs to make we've got some stuff
19:21
that we've got to figure out some
19:22
difficult conversations chime in my
19:25
Discord Channel invite link is in the
19:28
description deson of the video my blog
19:30
post also there get involved have a
19:34
voice let your voice be heard hopefully
19:37
I see you out on the water this summer
19:41
enjoying a heck of a good season as
19:44
we're we're hoping hoping to have in
19:47
2025 take care
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